Mexico City, June 4, 2024 — In a landmark election, Mexicans have elected Claudia Sheinbaum as their new president, entrusting her with more than 58% of the vote. This resounding victory gives Sheinbaum a strong mandate to govern the second-largest economy in Latin America and the United States' primary trading partner.
As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador prepares to leave office on October 1, Sheinbaum will inherit a nation grappling with slow economic growth and violence related to organized crime. Her administration will also face the complex task of managing a strained relationship with the United States. Despite deep economic ties, issues such as global migration and drug trafficking have tested the bilateral relationship.
"The two countries have been suffering from an incredible fumbling of the ball in dealing with each other," said Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University's Baker Institute. "I think the two countries need to come back to the table."
The multifaceted U.S.-Mexico relationship extends beyond political tensions. Mexico's influence on the U.S. economy is profound, from Mexico-made car parts that sustain U.S. autoworkers in Detroit to windmill blades exported to U.S. clean energy plants, pacemakers saving American lives, and the popular $15 avocado toast on menus nationwide.
U.S. exports to Mexico include grains grown in the Midwest and natural gas from Texas. In return, Mexico sends fruits and vegetables north, helping to stabilize grocery costs amid volatile inflation in the U.S. Last year, Mexico surpassed China to become the United States' largest trading partner, with nearly $800 billion in annual trade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
However, the relationship is fraught with challenges. Mexico is the transit country for hundreds of thousands of U.S.-bound migrants, leading to repeated humanitarian crises at the U.S. border. Additionally, it is the source of the fentanyl that kills tens of thousands of Americans each year.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), negotiated during the Trump administration, is up for renegotiation in 2026. U.S. business leaders express concerns that reopening the deal could create uncertainty and harm both economies.
"Mexico is now the U.S.’s main trading partner," said Jennifer Apperti, director of the Texas-Mexico Center at Southern Methodist University. "To again reopen the door to things that have just been negotiated would be, honestly, not the best use of time. And business time is of the essence."
Domingo Garcia, president of the U.S.-based League of United Latin American Citizens, expressed optimism about collaborating with the Sheinbaum administration. He found Sheinbaum "open, engaging, and willing to listen and share her thoughts on moving forward. Mexicans are vital to the United States' economic future and our hemisphere's overall robust vibrancy. At the same time, we must consider environmental and scientific initiatives in the interest of our well-being today and for future generations."
Sunday's election saw an estimated 60% voter turnout, making it one of the largest in Mexico's history, with nearly 100 million eligible voters. For the first time, Mexican citizens living in the United States were able to cast their ballots in person at 20 consulates, including in Phoenix.
Sheinbaum's victory marks a new chapter for Mexico as it navigates its future domestically and on the international stage, especially in its crucial relationship with the United States.
