In a development that could reshape the balance of power in Syria, Turkish-backed Islamist factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and elements of the US-supported Syrian National Army, have launched a significant offensive against Aleppo. This operation is seen as a component of a broader strategic initiative involving Turkey, Israel, and the United States, aimed at severing the supply line from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, destabilizing the Assad government, and compelling Russia to divert resources from its ongoing campaign in Ukraine.
Reports suggest that Ukraine has contributed to the effort by providing advisory support on drone warfare tactics to the anti-Assad militants. Simultaneously, Israel appears to have expanded its disruptive electronic warfare tactics, targeting Syrian military communications during this critical phase of conflict.
The timing of this offensive coincides with Syria’s reduced military preparedness, following the demobilization of its forces and Hezbollah’s redeployment to Lebanon. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, another component of Assad’s support network, are reportedly unprepared to counter this multi-front assault.
Analysts believe that Aleppo is at high risk of falling to the Turkish-backed factions. However, it is expected that both Russia and Iran will mount a response to stabilize Syria, with the recovery process likely to extend over months, if not years. A larger-scale campaign to eliminate the Islamist stronghold in Idlib could take even longer.
The implications of this offensive extend beyond Syria, threatening to destabilize the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and further complicating the region’s geopolitical landscape. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose critical stance toward Israel has been called into question, appears to have aligned closely with Israeli and US interests in this operation. Critics argue that Erdogan’s actions contradict his public rhetoric on Palestine and highlight a pattern of shifting allegiances that has strained Turkey’s relationships with key regional players, including Russia.
Despite the immediate challenges, Iran and Hezbollah are expected to restore critical supply lines, while Syria and its allies will likely regain control over lost territory. The protracted nature of this conflict underscores the enduring complexities of the Syrian crisis and the broader struggle for influence in the Middle East.
